Student caller Alagie Ceesay makes a call during the 2016 Fall Survey.
The St. Cloud State University survey seeks Minnesotans views on political and social questions regarding major issues facing the nation. The calling is conducted by student callers with professors leading analysis and reporting of the data.
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Political questions focused on respondents’ vote choice for president, the Minnesota constitutional ballot on lawmaker salaries, news consumption patterns and additional questions related to partisan and ideological preference.
“Our survey results suggest that interest in the election is high and that voter turnout in Minnesota is likely to be very strong,” said James Cottrill, assistant professor of political science. “This is not surprising as Minnesota has a well-deserved reputation for political engagement and voter participation.”
A combined 94 percent of respondents indicated that they are almost certain or at least 50 percent likely to vote. Four percent of respondents indicated they would not vote in the election.
— James Cottrill, assistant professor of political science
The survey looked at how Minnesotans felt about presidential candidates at the time the survey was conducted Oct. 19-30. Minnesotans shared their views on the two major party candidates the results suggest:
- Hillary Clinton has a lead among likely Minnesota voters. Clinton leads Trump 46 percent to 35 percent. The 11 percentage point difference falls outside the margin of error for the study.
- Among voters who support Clinton, 37 percent are male and 63 percent are female.
- Among voters who support Trump, 60 percent are male and 40 percent female.
- Overall 59 percent of female voters sampled support Clinton, 28 percent support Trump.
- Overall 35 percent of male voters sampled support Clinton, 43 percent support Trump.
Cottrill cautions that much of the responses were gathered before the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s announcement about re-opening the agency’s inquiry into Clinton’s emails, so the survey did not have enough responses to determine how the announcement affected voter support for her candidacy.
“Another interesting finding is the degree to which positions and policy seem to be playing a role in voters’ candidate choices this year,” Cottrill said. “… We find very sharp differences between supporters of the candidates on a number of issues, suggesting that Minnesota voters do pay attention to issue positions of the candidates.”
Respondents were sharply divided along partisan lines over the issues of immigration and climate change:
- 93 percent of Clinton supporters responded that immigrants have a positive effect on the country versus 4 percent that feel immigrants have a negative effect.
- 43 percent of Trump supporters responded that immigrants have a positive effect on the country versus 45 percent who feel immigrants have a negative effect.
- 58 percent of Trump voters expressed support for the idea of building a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.
- 94 percent of Clinton supporters oppose the idea of building a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.
Student caller Kaylee Juntunen makes a call during the 2016 fall survey.
The survey also sought Minnesotan’s views on the statewide ballot initiative to remove the power of lawmakers to set their own salaries. Support for the measure was bipartisan with 67 percent of respondents expressing support for the amendment with both Trump and Clinton supporters expressing roughly equal levels of support.
A small majority of Minnesotans believe the state is headed in the right direction. Fifty-three percent of respondents think the state is headed in the right direction as opposed to 31 percent who see it as going on the wrong track. This is a slight decline in confidence from 2015, when 58 percent felt the state was on the right track. It is the second-highest confidence level measured in the state in the past 15 years.
The confidence level for the state far exceeded confidence in the direction of the nation. Only 32 percent of respondents felt that the nation is heading in the right direction, and 59 percent said they believe the nation is on the wrong track.
Confidence levels are higher for the nation’s leader, with President Barack Obama being viewed favorably by 56 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 38 percent of respondents.
Only the political responses have been evaluated from the fall survey with results of the other topics to be released at a later time.
Responses for the survey were gathered from 431 randomly-selected landline and cellphone adult users Oct. 19-30 at the 36-year-old St. Cloud State Survey Lab. See the full report for the complete methodology and findings.
