Related links
Oct. 3 the University reached the 30th day of classes for Fall 2017. The 30th day gives us a consistent benchmark to compare enrollment across terms.
The numbers outlined below are the official enrollment headcount of students who are taking credit-based courses on the 30th day of the fall semester.
Headcount and FYE Enrollment
Figure 1. Total student headcount (Click to enlarge)
To get an overall look at our current enrollment picture, both headcount enrollment and full-year equivalent (FYE) enrollment is captured and analyzed on the 30th day. The measure of headcount treats every student equally. Every student that is enrolled for one of more credits is one headcount. FYE works a little differently and factors in student credit hours. The equation for calculating FYE is the sum of undergraduate credits divided by 30 plus the sum of graduate credits divided by 20, or:
Figure 2. Total student FYE as of 30th day of classes. (Click to enlarge)
This means that an undergraduate student enrolled in 15 credits during the fall semester will count as 0.5 FYE, but a student enrolled in 3 credits will only count as 0.1 FYE.
Fall 2017 headcount enrollment declined by 3.2 percent to 14,615 students. FYE enrollment is down 3.4 percent.
Actual fall 2017 enrollment is slightly better than our enrollment forecasts used for budgeting and planning purposes. FYE enrollment was projected to decline by four percent this fall. The primary contributor to the better than expected FYE enrollment was another increase in our students’ attempted credits.
Credit-taking Behavior
For undergraduate degree-seeking students, average credits attempted increased across all student class levels. For graduate students, attempted credits remained level for the third consecutive year.
With research showing that enrolling full-time correlates to better retention and graduation rates, the University has made it a priority to advise students on the benefits of increasing their credit load. For the second consecutive year, there are more undergraduate students attempting 15 credits than 12 credits, which has been rare over the past 15 years. This increase in credits attempted has led to 45 percent of degree-seeking undergraduates attempting 15 or more credits, compared to 39 percent one year ago.
Table 1. Average credits attempted by degree-seeking students. (Click to enlarge)
Student Unmet Need and the Effect on Retention
The retention rate for first-time students who entered St. Cloud State last year landed at 66.4 percent, down 2.5 percentage points from last year.
Many factors influence a student’s decision to return to school for their second year. At St. Cloud State, our students’ financial situation is a primary factor. One measure of our students’ financial situation is their unmet need. Student unmet need, or financial gap, is a measure of a student’s cost of attendance minus their ability to pay for that cost. Their ability to pay includes family income and their financial aid package (loans, grants and scholarships). Students have multiple options to cover that unmet need, but taking out private loans or working off campus are common practices.
Just more than half of St. Cloud State’s first-time students have some level of unmet need, which has remained consistent across years. The fall 2017 first-time student cohort has the highest percentage of students with high unmet need ($4,000+) at 32 percent, which is five percentage points higher than the previous high of 27 percent for the fall 2015 cohort.
Table 2 shows that students with high unmet need are retained at lower rates than students with zero unmet need with differences being eight to 16 percentage points lower. And this difference holds across all academic profiles, meaning students entering St. Cloud State with a better than average academic profile are influenced by their unmet need.
Table 2. Retention rates by unmet need levels. (Click to enlarge)
New Undergraduate Student Headcount Enrollment
The number of first-time (NEF) students enrolling at St. Cloud State is 1,509. This is a decline of 289 students compared to fall 2016.
Figure 3. First-time (NEF) student and transfer-in (NET) student headcount enrollment. (Click to enlarge)
Transfer-in (NET) student enrollment declined slightly compared to fall 2016, enrolling 1,007 transfer students, a decline of three percent. The enrollment at St. Cloud State’s primary transfer institutions have experience enrollment declines through the past several years, which means there are fewer students who are in the transfer student recruitment pool.
Graduate Student Enrollment
For the third consecutive fall semester, graduate student headcount remains above 1,800 students. In fall 2017, graduate enrollment decreased by 1.6 percent, or 29 students.
Figure 5. Total graduate student headcount. (Click to enlarge)
The number of new entering graduate students decreased by 1.5 percent, or 7 students. The recent consistency of new graduate students indicates that graduate enrollment will remain steady through next year.
The number of doctoral students remained flat with 138 students enrolled. Student of color enrollment in graduate programs increased by a substantial margin (33 percent), while the number of international and white students decreased.
A Focus on Diversity
For the eighteenth consecutive year, the number of students of color (SOC) enrolled has increased. This fall, SOC headcount enrollment is 2,674 students, which characterizes 18.3 percent of the total student body.
International student enrollment also experienced an increase in fall 2017. Overall, international student headcount increased by six percent bringing the total headcount figure to 1,466. This is the highest enrollment for both students of color and international students ever at St. Cloud State.
Figure 6. Student of color enrollment and international student enrollment as percent of total enrollment. (Click to enlarge)
About the data scientist: Brent Donnay is the director of analytics and business intelligence in the Office of Strategy, Planning and Effectiveness at St. Cloud State University.
